Voting is under way in Vanuatu’s snap election, which is remarkably going ahead despite the turbulence of a severe earthquake one month ago.

Thursday has been declared a public holiday in the Pacific nation, when voters will elect their next parliament.

On Efate, and further across the archipelago, voters defied the hot sun to do their democratic duty.

In Mele, north of the capital, voters began waiting outside their local polling station well before its 7.30am opening.

There are few signs of electioneering, given the formal campaign period wrapped up on Monday.

Polling stations are open until 4.30pm, when the challenging counting process will begin.

Given there are 352 polling stations, staffed by police and electoral workers, with ballots brought to Port Vila to be counted and officially ratified, an official outcome is not expected for days.

Ni-Vanuatu in Australia, New Zealand and other regions can cast proxy ballots.

Then comes all-important negotiations among parties to form a coalition government, given Vanuatu’s tendency to elect a multitude of parties.

The election is taking place almost two years ahead of time.

In November, Prime Minister Charlot Salwai opted to dissolve parliament rather than risk a no-confidence vote in his fractured coalition government.

While the December 17 earthquake upended Port Vila, killing 14 people and injuring many more, the election is going ahead as Vanuatu’s constitution requires an election to be held within 60 days of the dissolution of parliament.

The date selected – January 16 – is the latest day possible allowed by law.

Vanuatu’s Electoral Office has worked around the clock to secure the necessary polling materials, train workers, and send ballot boxes across the archipelago.

VEO principal electoral officer Guilain Malessas confirmed two ships were dropping off the tools of democracy with nature’s assistance.

“We are grateful for the good weather conditions currently in Vanuatu. The deployments are proceeding safely and on time,” he told the Vanuatu Daily Post.

Mr Salwai opted for the election after a number of issues eroded confidence in his leadership, including a proposal to double an already-dubious constituency funding program and give every MP $A130,000.

Graeme Smith, senior fellow at the Australian National University’s Pacific Affairs department, said voting patterns suggested particular villages and towns often stuck with the same party or candidate.

“It’s quite similar to to a lot of Melanesia in that there is a fair bit of expectation based on where you are, what village you’re from, what clan you’re from, and who you will then vote for,” he said.

“So certain candidates who are locked in, and we’ve seen some of them rotating as prime minister.

“What’s interesting about Vanuatu, as opposed to PNG and Solomon Islands, is that you do have some politicians that are just there time after time after time, and it doesn’t seem there’s any easy way for them to be dislodged.”

A number of candidates are former prime ministers, including Vanua’aka Party leader Bob Loughman, UMP leader Ishmael Kalsakau, and Sato Kilman, who has held the post four times while People’s Progressive Party leader.

The Leaders Party’s Jotham Napat has been tipped as a possible prime minister, while climate advocate and Land and Justice Party leader Ralph Regenvanu is also interested. 

The government will be decided after the vote, when party leaders jockey and negotiate for positions in coalition negotiations.

There are 217 candidates vying for win seats, including just seven women.

Vanuatu has historically elected the fewest women in the Pacific region: just six since independence in 1980.

Gloria Julia King, the sole woman in the last parliament, is hoping to win election in Rural Efate, as is high-profile candidate Marie Louise Milne, Port Vila’s deputy lord mayor.

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Written By: Ben McKay © AAP 2025

Australia’s regional security ambitions are on the ballot this week in Vanuatu, where voters will elect a fresh government in the wake of political turmoil and a major earthquake.

The Pacific nation is off to the polls on Thursday for a snap election, given Prime Minister Charlot Salwai’s dissolution of parliament in November.

In the tumultuous weeks since, opposition MPs twice failed with legal bids to cancel the election, while Port Vila was rocked by a 7.3 magnitude earthquake a week before Christmas, killing at least 14 people.

Despite that tragedy, there was revelry on the capital’s streets on Monday.

In typical Melanesian style, convoys of cars and vans packed with supporters clad in party colours flooded the capital’s main roads, making one final, noisy, pitch to voters on the final day of the formal campaign period.

With a midnight deadline for all campaign activities, many ran that right to the line, creating a racket late into the night.

Plenty is at stake, for both Vanuatu and the region.

Many ni-Vanuatu are frustrated at the political instability, given the churn of 20 different prime ministers this century.

There are serious issues facing one of the Pacific’s poorest nations, which must now contend with yet another recovery from a major disaster.

Australia also has skin in the game.

In 2022, Anthony Albanese’s government announced a bilateral security agreement with Vanuatu, with Foreign Minister Penny Wong leading a bipartisan delegation to Port Vila to sign the deal.

This pact was the first of several signed in the region during Mr Albanese’s tenure, including far-reaching treaties with Tuvalu and Nauru, the NRL-enabling deal with Papua New Guinea, and a major policing investment with Solomon Islands.

In 2024, Australia also helped create two new regional entities: a Pacific Response Group to coordinate military co-deployments, including to disasters, and the $400m Pacific Policing Initiative.

However, the Australia-Vanuatu deal never entered into force: instead, it was cause for deep introspection in Vanuatu, with many MPs upset with prime minister Ishmael Kalsakau’s handling of the agreement.

“The agreement was not widely enough consulted amongst Vanuatu politicians and also then amongst the community,” Australian Strategic Policy Institute senior analyst Blake Johnson told AAP.

“That was a reason for a vote against him as prime minister, in which he ended up losing the position (though) not necessarily the biggest reason.”

Australian National University Asia Pacific Affairs senior fellow Graeme Smith agreed it helped remove Mr Kalsakau from office.

“It was part of the political upheaval. It did play a role,” he said.

Several parties want Vanuatu to sidestep the geopolitical contest between the United States and China, viewing their home as a non-aligned nation.

Mr Kalsakau lasted another nine months before shifting allegiances in parliament allowed Sato Kilman a sixth stint as prime minister.

Mr Kilman was replaced by Charlot Salwai in October 2023, who looked like losing office himself late in 2024, before he dissolved parliament to head off a no-confidence motion.

While Mr Kilman and Mr Salwai did not ratify the security agreement, Mr Kalsakau has vowed to do so if his opposition bloc is returned to power.

“We will get the ratification through,” he told AAP in December.

Mr Johnson said that promise would depend on the shape of the government after the election.

“His coalition will likely be made up of multiple small parties, each with their own agendas, and if he tries to rush too fast on security agreements with Australia, it can lead to one party getting up and moving to the other side in a motion of no confidence,” he said.

Mr Johnson said he imagined that “people sitting back in Canberra would have fingers crossed hoping to see Kalsakau returned” as it was “a good time for the relationship”, though he believed there were no poor outcomes for Australia.

“But in comparison to maybe some of the other leaders across the Pacific, there’s no one (Australia) butts heads with as much as in other countries.”

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Written By: Ben McKay © AAP 2025